Berlin Dog Bite Statistics

Currently, the dog license is already mandatory for "dangerous breeds" or Listenhunde (Pitbull Terriers, American Staffordshire Terriers, Bullterriers and mixes thereof), which are also required to be muzzled in public. To learn more about current regulations and what is being proposed, have a read through our previous article.

To understand the motivation behind the proposed new law (as well as its potential impact), I analyzed the raw data from the Berlin senate's dog bite statistics.

Please note:

• Figures for the exact split between dangerous and non-dangerous breeds and mixes in the registered dog population are only available for 2024.
• The data was analyzed with the assumption that owning dangerous breeds has not become more common.
• It is widely understood and reported that the actual dog population size in Berlin is at least twice that of the number registered.
• Prior to 2019, the data for attacks on humans was not categorized by severity.
• The senate's criteria for severe versus light human injury is not publicly available.

What the Numbers Say

Before we dive into the tabular data, we first need familiarize ourselves with the figures around the registered dog population in Berlin. A total of 1432 "dangerous breeds" were registered in 2024. The size of the total registered dog population at the time was 131 440 (dangerous breeds made up around 1%).

Why does population size matter?

To understand whether dog attacks are becoming more frequent, we need to know if attacks are increasing independent of population size. If there is no change in attack frequency, dog attacks recorded would increase proportionately to the growth of the dog population. If dog attacks increase in spite of the dog population size staying the same, it means attacks have become more common (either because more dogs are involved in attacks or the dogs involved are attacking more often. Whatever the case, to come up with a solution we need to understand the cause.

Why does categorization as dangerous breed matter?

Resources are always spread thin in Berlin. So if possible, they should be focused and directed where needed - rather than applied broadly. If attacks are indeed more commonly associated with dangerous breeds, then it would make sense to focus on this segment of the dog population when coming up with a solution. By looking at the senate's statistics, we will find out whether dangerous breeds are over or under represented, i.e. whether categorizing dogs into "dangerous breed" or "other" and keeping separate statistics makes sense.

The argument by the Berlin senate is that dog attacks are increasing and therefore they need to double down on dog licenses. They also want to do away with the label of dangerous breeds, presumably because this is unnecessarily discriminatory. It sounds plausible enough, so let's take a look at whether the numbers tell the same story!

Visualizing the Data

The blue table represents so-called dangerous breeds aka Listenhunde, and the yellow table represents all other breeds. Most columns names were simply translated in English directly from the senate's data and are self explanatory. I use the term "human threatened" to describe the situation where a human has been jumped on and aggressed, but injury was reported. The column "% Population" represents the number of dogs involved in attacks as a percentage of the respective segment (e.g. dangerous vs non-dangerous) of the registered dog population. It is assumed that each attack is unique and represents one dog.

Dog Attack Frequency

The total dog population increased by around 10% during the pandemic, up from 119 000 registered dogs recorded in 2019. Assuming that the registered dog population was stable at 119 000 until then, we can see that human attacks also remained relatively stable, although dog injuries fluctuated. Dog attacks surged in 2023, in line with the relaxation of pandemic measures.

Dangerous Breed Involvement

Dangerous breed attacks on humans have appeared to remain relatively stable until the pandemic (where they increased slightly). Interestingly, compared to 2023 the frequency of attacks as a total seem to have reduced quite significantly. What is worrying, however, is that since 2020 the number of attacks causing severe human injury has sky rocketed from just under 3% to almost 13% in 2024. Dog on dog attacks are less straight forward; they seem to have decreased from 2017 - 2019 and then surged during the pandemic. However, since 2024 they have also decreased significantly.

Year on Year Change (for all Dog Attacks)

It is undeniable that the percentage of attacks resulting in severe human injury increased dramatically during the pandemic. At its worst, severe human attacks increased by almost 28% in one year. However, there has been a sharp drop in both the total number of attacks as well as their severity in 2024 compared to the previous year.

It has been proven in countless studies, that dogs bring tangible benefits to their owners, which in a loneliness epidemic is more important than ever. It is my firm belief that to make sure that we are doing right by our dogs and integrating them well in our communities, it is essential to understand where the roots of the problems lie. A not so "sexy" topic to discuss within the complex and often emotional context of animal welfare.

Possible Explanations

Without knowing what caused this sudden positive shift in numbers, it is difficult to see the mandatory dog license as the appropriate solution. There are several possibilities for explaining the change:

• A consequence of the pandemic: In Germany, much of the population stayed indoors during the pandemic with mandatory work from home and the shutdown of non-essential services. Although walking one's dog outside was never part of the restrictions, social gatherings of more than two households were not permitted. This impacted the socialization of puppies at least as much as it did children (the long-term effects of which we are still only beginning to comprehend).
• A sharp spike in veterinary prices: the GOT (veterinary standard fee rate) increased dramatically in the two years leading up to 2024. This could have dissuaded many would be dog owners from getting a dog post-pandemic.
• Widespread insurance cancellation: following the increase in veterinary fees, many insurance companies cancelled the coverage of high risk dogs. This included health insurance for the old and sickly, but also liability for certain breeds. This may have been a wake up call for owners of high risk dogs.
• The passing away of dogs exempt from the leash laws: dogs owned by Berlin residents for at least 3 years prior to the leash laws coming into effect in 2019 were exempt. The youngest of the dogs exempt from this law would be 9 years old today, the older ones would have passed away. With fewer off leash dogs on the street (theoretically), the number of bites in some contexts would be expected to go down.
• Berlin import ban of dogs under 1 year from unscrupulous sources. Dogs under 1 year of age can only be brought to Berlin if purchased from a licensed breeder or obtained through the (Berliner Tierheim) shelter. This law by itself greatly restricts the number and quality of dogs allowed to be imported to Berlin.
• Mass abandonment of pets post-pandemic: while a very unpleasant scenario, it is no secret that with the return to office mandate, many chose to give up their pet. As a result, shelters across in Germany no longer accept owner surrendered dogs.

Implementing the New Law

As mentioned earlier, the city of Berlin is already in dire need of resources for countless other initiatives. It is therefore questionable how realistic implementing something of this scale would even be. To illustrate my point: the Ordnungsamt struggle to keep up with leash violations and in most districts of Berlin, dog poop is a permanent and frequent footpath fixture.

Moreover, current dog owners will be exempted from the new requirements. So, the mandatory dog license would only apply to new dog owners. But the thing is, so far we don't have any statistics to prove that new dog owners are the problem. Should current dog owners be the problem, then this law will obviously not be very effective.

TBC... in part III, we take a look at possible solutions.